The Occupational Psychology Centre (OPC) has been exploring how Non-Technical Skills (NTS) can be proactively applied to help prevent incidents before they occur. By utilising NTS as a predictive ‘Leading Indicator,’ rail operators can identify risks earlier and implement targeted safety interventions to enhance driver safety.

Dr Stephen Fletcher, Director at OPC, highlighted: “Ensuring train driver competence and effective performance is critical. Identifying drivers at higher risk allows for earlier, targeted support, ensuring competence and enhancing safety.”

He added: “Maximising data and performance insights, Driver Managers can efficiently focus support where it’s needed most, delivering both safety and cost benefits.”

A spotlight on Non-Technical Skills (NTS)

NTS are now recognised as vital for safe operations in critical roles like train drivers and signallers. Many rail operators now evaluate their drivers on both technical skills and their demonstration of key NTS.

For over two decades, OPC psychologists have conducted more than 600 Post-Incident Assessments (PIAs). Their analysis revealed that NTS shortfalls, such as a lack of focus or inadequate checking, can often be the root cause of incidents.

Dr Fletcher noted, “We also find recurring NTS shortfalls across employees and incidents meaning a single NTS deficiency can contribute to multiple incident types. While PIA work can help identify NTS development areas and prevent incident recurrency, a proactive approach using NTS data to identify higher-risk drivers earlier could be beneficial in reducing incidents through targeted support.”

The Predictive Power of Leading Indicators – A Study

OPC psychologists conducted a study with over 200 train drivers at a leading Train Operating Company (TOC), collecting data on safety incidents, sickness records, competence assessments, and NTS ratings provided by Driver Managers. Each driver received an A-D NTS grading based on this data. Two years later, OPC analysis showed 55 per cent of these drivers had been involved in at least one safety incident. This established a benchmark for the study. Drivers’ NTS grades proved to be the strongest predictor of safety performance.

Key findings

OPC psychologists focused on the eleven strongest NTS predictors. Drivers rated lower on these NTS, i.e., Category D, experienced significantly more incidents than drivers on the highest NTS rating (A), who had the lowest number of incidents:

Category D drivers had the highest incidents (69 per cent) equating to 14 per cent above the baseline.
57 per cent of Category C drivers had incidents, two per cent above the baseline.
In contrast 51 per cent of Category B drivers had incidents, four per cent below the baseline.
Category A drivers were 11 per cent below the baseline with 44 per cent of drivers having an incident.

Key recommendations

The OPC suggests that operators use these study findings to develop preventive support strategies:

Proactive Leading Indicator NTS Assessments to identify at-risk drivers early, enabling targeted support to help improve safety performance.
Commit Resources for Enhanced NTS Development for key NTS across all driver communities.
Provide Targeted NTS Support for drivers with lower NTS ratings, focusing on protective strategies like concentration techniques, or personal risk management tactics.

A fundamental shift for rail safety?

The OPC’s progressive use of NTS ratings as a predictive tool has led to a new study phase supported by South Western Railway (SWR), exploring the model’s longer-term accuracy.

Dr Fletcher said: “Our initial study showed promising results for NTS as a Leading Indicator. Now, in close collaboration with SWR, we aim to determine if the model can reliably identify drivers at higher risk of future safety incidents later in their careers. We’re excited about this next stage.”

Stewart Player, Head of Operational Standards at South Western Railway, said: “The OPC’s support in embedding NTS into our recruitment, training, and competence assessments has been invaluable. Their assistance with post-incident analysis and participation on our NTS working group is integral. As we advance our NTS journey, we’re shifting focus that goes beyond assessing just technical proficiency. We’re excited to support the next study phase and see more results on the predictive power of NTS.”

If you think the OPC can support the development of Non-Technical Skills (NTS) in your organisation, contact the friendly team.

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